Scale-free dynamics of COVID-19 in a Brazilian city.

A common basis to address the dynamics of directly transmitted infectious diseases, such as COVID-19, are compartmental (or SIR) models. SIR models typically assume homogenous population mixing, a simplification that is convenient but unrealistic. Here we validate an existing model of a scale-free fractal infection process using high-resolution data on COVID-19 spread in São Caetano, Brazil. We find that transmission can be described by a network in which each infectious individual has a small number of susceptible contacts, of the order of 2-5. This model parameter correlated tightly with physical distancing measured by mobile phone data, such that in periods of greater distancing the model recovered a lower average number of contacts, and vice versa. We show that the SIR model is a special case of our scale-free fractal process model in which the parameter that reflects population structure is set at unity, indicating homogeneous mixing. Our more general framework better explained the dynamics of COVID-19 in São Caetano, used fewer parameters than a standard SIR model and accounted for geographically localized clusters of disease. Our model requires further validation in other locations and with other directly transmitted infectious agents.

Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings.

Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014-16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD's incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.

Reconstruction and prediction of viral disease epidemics.

A growing number of infectious pathogens are spreading among geographic regions. Some pathogens that were previously not considered to pose a general threat to human health have emerged at regional and global scales, such as Zika and Ebola Virus Disease. Other pathogens, such as yellow fever virus, were previously thought to be under control but have recently re-emerged, causing new challenges to public health organisations. A wide array of new modelling techniques, aided by increased computing capabilities, novel diagnostic tools, and the increased speed and availability of genomic sequencing allow researchers to identify new pathogens more rapidly, assess the likelihood of geographic spread, and quantify the speed of human-to-human transmission. Despite some initial successes in predicting the spread of acute viral infections, the practicalities and sustainability of such approaches will need to be evaluated in the context of public health responses.

Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential.

The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age and sex distribution of human cases is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission and spatial expansion toward previously YFV-free areas, followed by a rise in viral spillover to humans in late 2016. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real time that will contribute to a global strategy to eliminate future YFV epidemics.

Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas.

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in northeast Brazil. Brazil has had the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (more than 200,000 by 24 December 2016) and the most cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed by 31 December 2016). Since the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, more than 45 countries in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 24 of these reporting severe ZIKV-associated disease. However, the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of this information for interpreting observed trends in reported microcephaly. Here we address this issue by generating 54 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, and reporting data generated by a mobile genomics laboratory that travelled across northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data yield an estimate that ZIKV was present in northeast Brazil by February 2014 and is likely to have disseminated from there, nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates for the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in recipient regions. The role of northeast Brazil in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the basic reproduction number of the virus.

HIV Maintains an Evolving and Dispersed Population in Multiple Tissues during Suppressive Combined Antiretroviral Therapy in Individuals with Cancer.

UNLABELLED: While combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) can result in undetectable plasma viral loads, it does not eradicate HIV infection. Furthermore, HIV-infected individuals while on cART remain at an increased risk of developing serious comorbidities, such as cancer, neurological disease, and atherosclerosis, suggesting that during cART, tissue-based HIV may contribute to such pathologies. We obtained DNA and RNA env, nef, and pol sequences using single-genome sequencing from postmortem tissues of three HIV(+) cART-treated (cART(+)) individuals with undetectable viral load and metastatic cancer at death and performed time-scaled Bayesian evolutionary analyses. We used a sensitive in situ hybridization technique to visualize HIV gag-pol mRNA transcripts in cerebellum and lymph node tissues from one patient. Tissue-associated virus evolved at similar rates in cART(+) and cART-naive (cART(-)) patients. Phylogenetic trees were characterized by two distinct features: (i) branching patterns consistent with constant viral evolution and dispersal among tissues and (ii) very recently derived clades containing both DNA and RNA sequences from multiple tissues. Rapid expansion of virus near death corresponded to wide-spread metastasis. HIV RNA(+) cells clustered in cerebellum tissue but were dispersed in lymph node tissue, mirroring the evolutionary patterns observed for that patient. Activated, infiltrating macrophages were associated with HIV RNA. Our data provide evidence that tissues serve as a sanctuary for wild-type HIV during cART and suggest the importance of macrophages as an alternative reservoir and mechanism of virus spread. IMPORTANCE: Combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) reduces plasma HIV to undetectable levels; however, removal of cART results in plasma HIV rebound, thus highlighting its inability to entirely rid the body of infection. Additionally, HIV-infected individuals on cART remain at high risk of serious diseases, which suggests a contribution from residual HIV. In this study, we isolated and sequenced HIV from postmortem tissues from three HIV(+) cART(+) individuals who died with metastatic cancer and had no detectable plasma viral load. Using high-resolution evolutionary analyses, we found that tissue-based HIV continues to replicate, evolve, and migrate among tissues during cART. Furthermore, cancer onset and metastasis coincided with increased HIV expansion, suggesting a linked mechanism. HIV-expressing cells were associated with tissue macrophages, a target of HIV infection. Our results suggest the importance of tissues, and macrophages in particular, as a target for novel anti-HIV therapies.

Zika vírus in the americas: early epidemiological and genetic findings

Brazil has experienced an unprecedented epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV), with ~30,000 cases reported to date. ZIKV was first detected in Brazil in May 2015, and cases of microcephaly potentially associated with ZIKV infection were identified in November 2015. We performed next-generation sequencing to generate seven Brazilian ZIKV genomes sampled from four self-limited cases, one blood donor, one fatal adult case, and one newborn with microcephaly and congenital malformations. Results of phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses show a single introduction of ZIKV into the Americas, which we estimated to have occurred between May and December 2013, more than 12 months before the detection of ZIKV in Brazil. The estimated date of origin coincides with an increase in air passengers to Brazil from ZIKV-endemic areas, as well as with reported outbreaks in the Pacific Islands. ZIKV genomes from Brazil are phylogenetically interspersed with those from other South American and Caribbean countries. Mapping mutations onto existing structural models revealed the context of viral amino acid changes present in the outbreak lineage; however...(AU)